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OSCAR BLOG #6: Analysis and Prediction (The Major Players)

By InCinemas / 17 Feb 2012 (Friday)

In our Oscar Blog #6, InCinemas will analyse the nominees and predict the winners for the six "Major Players": Best Picture, Best Director, Best Leading Actor, Best Leading Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. This is a follow up to our Oscar Blog #3: Analysis & Prediction (The Technical Categories), Oscar Blog #4: Analysis & Prediction (The Artistic Categories), and Oscar Blog #5: Analysis & Prediction (The Big Categories).

[Film still from The Artist]

BEST PICTURE
The term "Best Picture" has two meanings. One, it most commonly refers to the "Best Film of the Year", which in itself could mean either the most critically-acclaimed or the most popular film of the year. Two, it could also refer to the "Best Production of the Year", meaning that the film has great production values, stemming from an amalgamation of numerous parts ranging from the technical (e.g. cinematography, special visual effects) to the artistic (e.g. art direction, costume design), and to the logistical (e.g. casting, shooting locations).

This most prestigious category ideally rewards the nominee that shows itself to be the "Best Film of the Year", as well as the "Best Production of the Year", though in reality, it does not occur as frequently as we like.

[Film still from Hugo]

The nominees:

THE ARTIST - Thomas Langmann

Known for: Mesrine: Public Enemy #1 (2008), Mesrine: Killer Instinct (2008).

THE DESCENDANTS - Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, & Jim Taylor

Known for: Election (1999)

EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE - Scott Rudin

Known for: The Hours (2002), No Country for Old Men (2007), Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009), True Grit (2010), The Social Network (2010).

THE HELP - Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, & Michael Barnathan

Known for: Bicentennial Man (1999), Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004), Night at the Museum (2006).

HUGO - Graham King, & Martin Scorsese

Known for: The Aviator (2004), The Departed (2006), Blood Diamond (2006), Shutter Island (2010), Rango (2011).

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - Letty Aronson, & Stephen Tenenbaum

Known for: Match Point (2005), Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)

MONEYBALL - Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, & Brad Pitt

Known for: The Departed (2006), The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007), Kick-Ass (2010), The Social Network (2010), The Tree of Life (2011).

THE TREE OF LIFE - Sarah Green, Grant Hill, Dede Gardner, & Bill Pohlad

Known for: The Thin Red Line (1998), Frida (2002), V for Vendetta (2005), The New World (2005), Into the Wild (2007).

WAR HORSE - Steven Spielberg, & Kathleen Kennedy

Known for: E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982), Saving Private Ryan (1998), The Sixth Sense (1999), Munich (2005), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008).

The Academy will pick...	The Artist
The Dark Horse is...	Hugo
InCinemas' pick	The Artist

[Film still from The Help]

Analysis: The Descendants was the frontrunner in this category, but the buzz for it has since petered off. The Help has an outside chance of winning if the 1000+ actors voters have their way. But we feel this is a two-horse race between The Artist and Hugo, with the former having the clear advantage.

It will be a big statement of intent if the Academy goes for The Artist on Oscar night, shattering the myth that a black-and-white silent film about the decline of a silent film star can never win a Best Picture Award in this modern age.

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BEST DIRECTOR
The director is the most important person in the entire filmmaking process. A number of great directors are also screenwriters. They oversee the creative process from pre-production to production to post-production. Great directors have their own unique vision, visual style, and have themes that recur in their works, in what is now known as "The Auteur Theory". They are also masters in getting the best out of his or her cast and crew.

[Image of Martin Scorsese, director of Hugo]

The nominees:

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - Woody Allen

Known for: Annie Hall (1977), Manhattan (1979), The Purple Rose of Cairo (1985), Match Point (2005), Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008).

THE ARTIST - Michel Hazanavicius

Known for: Nil

THE TREE OF LIFE - Terrence Malick

Known for: Badlands (1973), Days of Heaven (1978), The Thin Red Line (1998), The New World (2005).

THE DESCENDANTS - Alexander Payne

Known for: Citizen Ruth (1996), Election (1999), About Schmidt (2002), Sideways (2004).

HUGO - Martin Scorsese

Known for: Taxi Driver (1976), Raging Bull (1980), Goodfellas (1990), The Aviator (2004), The Departed (2006).

The Academy will pick...	Michel Hazanavicius
The Dark Horse is...	Martin Scorsese
InCinemas' pick	Michel Hazanavicius

[Image of Michel Hazanavicius, director of The Artist]

Analysis: Woody Allen and Alexander Payne will most likely be rewarded for their outstanding screenplays, rather than their directing. This leaves us with Terrence Malick, Martin Scorsese, and Michel Hazanavicius. Malick is a surprise nomination in this category, though in an ideal scenario, he should be rewarded for his bold vision of a philosophical and meditative film, something of an anomaly in today's cinema.

Scorsese is the dark horse for his successful foray into 3-D filmmaking, and we feel that his solitary Oscar win for The Departed is still not enough recognition for this living legend. Another Best Director Oscar win will go a long way in addressing this fact. That being said, we think that Hazanavicius should be crowned the winner for the sole reason that he has dared to make a silent black-and-white film, more than 80 years after it had gone out of fashion. It is now or never for the Academy to award this audacious and talented director.

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BEST LEADING ACTOR

[Image of George Clooney in The Descendants]

The nominees:

A BETTER LIFE - Demián Bichir

Known for: Che: Part One & Part Two (2008)

THE DESCENDANTS - George Clooney

Known for: Ocean's Eleven (2001), Good Night, and Good Luck (2005), Syriana (2005), Michael Clayton (2007), Up in the Air (2009).

THE ARTIST - Jean Dujardin

Known for: OSS 117: Cairo, Nest of Spies (2006).

TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY - Gary Oldman

Known for: JFK (1991), Dracula (1992), Leon: The Professional (1994), Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004). The Dark Knight (2008).

MONEYBALL - Brad Pitt

Known for: Thelma & Louise (1991), Twelve Monkeys (1995), Fight Club (1999), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008), Inglorious Basterds (2009).

The Academy will pick...	Jean Dujardin
The Dark Horse is...	George Clooney
InCinemas' pick	Jean Dujardin

[Image of Brad Pitt in Moneyball]

Analysis: A close two-horse race between Jean Dujardin and George Clooney is expected. Dujardin deserves the award for his outstanding performance, though Clooney might pip him to the prize if the Academy decides to reward one of their own. Brad Pitt, and Gary Oldman have a small outside chance of winning because they have not won before, especially the latter who has been undervalued by the Academy in the past. If Bichir wins, it would be one of the greatest Oscar upsets of all-time.

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BEST LEADING ACTRESS

[Image of Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn]

The nominees:

ALBERT NOBBS - Glenn Close

Known for: The World According to Garp (1982), The Big Chill (1983), The Natural (1984), Fatal Attraction (1987), Dangerous Liaisons (1988).

THE HELP - Viola Davis

Known for: Far from Heaven (2002), Doubt (2008).

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO - Rooney Mara

Known for: The Social Network (2010)

THE IRON LADY - Meryl Streep

Known for: Kramer vs. Kramer (1979), Sophie's Choice (1982), Out of Africa (1985), The Bridges of Madison County (1995), The Devil Wears Prada (2006).

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - Michelle Williams

Known for: Brokeback Mountain (2005), Wendy and Lucy (2008), Blue Valentine (2010), Shutter Island (2010).

The Academy will pick...	Viola Davis
The Dark Horse is...	Meryl Streep
InCinemas' pick	Michelle Williams

[Image of Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady]

Analysis: Like the Best Leading Actor category, this is a close two-horse race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Streep has not won in nearly thirty years, so the Academy may decide to reward her for her remarkable consistency over the decades. Viola Davis is the favorite with the Screen Actors Guild voters, who make up the bulk of the Academy, so she has the slight edge over Streep.

Glenn Close has been previously nominated five times, but sadly it is unlikely she will win on her sixth attempt. Michelle Williams is unlucky to be with Streep and Davis this year as her performance as Marilyn Monroe warrants an Oscar. As for Rooney Mara, if she wins, it will also be one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

[Image of Christopher Plummer in Beginners]

The nominees:

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - Kenneth Branagh

Known for: Henry V (1989), Much Ado About Nothing (1993), Frankenstein (1994), Hamlet (1996).

MONEYBALL - Jonah Hill

Known for: Knocked Up (2007), Superbad (2007), Funny People (2009), Get Him to the Greek (2010).

WARRIOR - Nick Nolte

Known for: The Prince of Tides (1991), Affliction (1997), The Thin Red Line (1998),

BEGINNERS - Christopher Plummer

Known for: The Sound of Music (1965), The Insider (1999), The Last Station (2009), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011).

EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE - Max von Sydow

Known for: The Seventh Seal (1957), The Exorcist (1973), Pelle the Conqueror (1987), Minority Report (2002), Shutter Island (2010).

The Academy will pick...	Christopher Plummer
The Dark Horse is...	Max von Sydow
InCinemas' pick	Christopher Plummer

[Image of Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close]

Analysis: One of the easiest categories to predict, the Best Supporting Actor Oscar will go to Christopher Plummer. Jonah Hill and Kenneth Branagh have never been in contention, while Nick Nolte and Max von Sydow are the best bets for an upset. The latter, like Plummer, is of the same age (83), and has only been nominated once before. But it is their body of work over the last half-century that has left a lasting legacy, and the Academy would want to reward either of them. But they are surely going to reward one of their own...

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

[Image of Bérénice Bejo in The Artist]

The nominees:

THE ARTIST - Bérénice Bejo

Known for: Nil

THE HELP - Jessica Chastain

Known for: Take Shelter (2011), The Tree of Life (2011).

BRIDESMAIDS - Melissa McCarthy

Known for: Nil

ALBERT NOBBS - Janet McTeer

Known for: Tumbleweeds (1999), Songcatcher (2000).

THE HELP - Octavia Spencer

Known for: Nil

The Academy will pick...	Octavia Spencer
The Dark Horse is...	Bérénice Bejo
InCinemas' pick	Octavia Spencer

[Image of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (right) in The Help]

Analysis: Despite Jessia Chastain being nominated in the same category for the same film, it is highly unlikely the votes will be split between her and Octavia Spencer, who we believe has one hand on the trophy already. The dark horse is Bérénice Bejo, who might nick it because of the tremendous support for The Artist, but the upset is unlikely. Janet McTeer, and Melissa McCarthy will be posing little threat to Spencer.

We hope you have enjoyed reading this.

Previously in the InCinemas' Oscar Blog series, we had:

OSCAR BLOG #1 - Top 5 Oscar Snubs of 2012! - Friday, 27 January
OSCAR BLOG #2 - Top 5 Oscar Surprises of 2012! - Wednesday, 1 February
OSCAR BLOG #3 - Analysis & Prediction (The Technical Categories) - Friday, 10 February
OSCAR BLOG #4 - Analysis & Prediction (The Artistic Categories) - Tuesday, 14 February
OSCAR BLOG #5 - Analysis & Prediction (The Big Categories) - Thurs, 16 February

Do check them out!

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OSCAR BLOG #6: Analysis and Prediction (The Major Players)